Things happen all at once, one time only. You can’t subject it to the scientific method. History doesn’t allow for controls or the isolation of independent variables. The problem with using mechanical theories of history to guide foreign policy is that we have no way to test them ahead of time.
I don’t believe that its loss would have lead – it didn’t lead – to Communist control of Asia.” I do not believe that Vietnam was that important to the communists. It’s striking that the biggest proponent of the Domino Theory during the war, Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, later confessed, “I think we were wrong. Perhaps when we ask if the Domino Theory was correct or not, we’re really asking if the fight in Vietnam was justified in terms of US national security. Political activist Noam Chomsky, a fierce opponent of the Vietnam War and critic of American foreign policy, has argued that dominoes do fall after successful revolutions because poor people in other countries see the results and ask, “why not us?” He called it “The Threat of the Good Example.” Argentinian revolutionary Che Guevara thought as much when he foresaw “two, three, many Vietnams” following from the success of Ho Chi Minh. It stands to reason that success in one place might spur success nearby. The Vietnamese then assisted the Pathet Lao in Laos, and so forth. These two countries’ war against the US and South Korea inspired the Vietnamese’s struggle against the French. North Korea fell in 1948, then China in 1949. One can point to earlier regime changes around the world that suggest the theory has some validity. If Vietnam was the first domino, and it turned fully Communist on April 30, 1975, shouldn’t its neighbors have turned red also?Īdvocates for the Domino Theory point to neighboring Laos and Cambodia, which tipped Communist after the Fall of Saigon. Most historians say it wasn’t, citing non-Communist Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia as proof. By keeping the first domino upright-in this case Vietnam-the US could prevent Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India from succumbing to Communist takeovers. The Domino Theory stated simply that Communist victory in one country or region would spark neighboring regions to rise up against pro-American governments, which would lead to more victories and further insurgencies. It offered a vivid mechanical framework for understanding why the United States should care about an armed struggle taking place 9,000 miles away from home. On April 7, 1954, President Dwight Eisenhower answered a press conference reporter’s question about the impending defeat of the French in Indochina with the first articulation of what would become known as “The Domino Theory.” The theory would drive the escalation of the Vietnam War over the next two decades.Īt the press conference, Ike spoke fewer than 150 words on the subject, and his answer included as much about Indochina’s tin, tungsten, and rubber as it did the famous “falling domino” principle of Communist expansion. Eisenhower during the President’s News Conference, April 7, 1954
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